Flattening Smile Curve, job security, and the MIC

Mish has an interesting recent article about the Stan Shih smile curve and the potential for it to flatten out.

Basically, the curve named for the life cycle of the product where the beginning and ending points are of the highest value: the initial product R&D and finally the marketing/sales; the curve bottoms out mid-cycle with manufacturing. Check it out.

His point is that although currently it's mostly manufacturing in the U.S. has been offshored to China, India, etc, it is pure arrogance to think the U.S. has a monopoly on thinking skills. Thus your high-level R&D jobs are at risk to cheap foreign labor.

Some have proposed that education is the answer. That presumes China and India and other countries are standing still. Like it or not, they aren't. China and India are churning out engineers faster than the U.S. I am not trying to dismiss the importance of education, but logic dictates that if everyone had a Ph.D., then Ph.D.s would be greeting at Wal-Mart and serving pizzas at Pizza Hut.

So one possible negative outcome of this market reality will be to force more U.S. Ph.D.s into "secure" government jobs, and in particular the Military Industrial Complex. You can't offshore work that requires a security clearance. This feedback cycle will make the regular economy increasingly distorted.

It is easy to empathise with the knowledge workers who choose to join or stay within the MIC. It's a nice steady paycheck to pay their mortgage and car debts. Don't worry about what we're actually doing with our time and effort. Hopefully it's mostly just wasting taxpayer dollars, and not building bombs.

But ultimately job security in the MIC depends on the U.S. being respected and/or feared by other countries. And with the current state of the quagmire, this power projection is looking less credible. Beware of the wounded leviathan, power concedes nothing without a demand.

But since they just marched in, we should demand that they march right back out.

Inspiriation Point!

The Point Rat went out to Inspo today and got a sweet flight, until he sunk out and got flushed like a rodent in the toilet!

He got about 2,000 over launch and thought he had enough to head to the south, but got stuffed instead. Violated the first rule of flight club, big time*.

At least he didn't choke the launch or landing, even if he needed full speedbar to reach the bailout LZ during his 3-to-1 flush! All things considered, a decent first flight!




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*the Second Rule is that you don't leave the lift.

HOWTO camp as a Point Rat

The Point Rat will generally hang out on the South Side of the Point of the Mountain, car camping. Although he may start with a tent, placed strategically close to the vehicle, he quickly realizes that this is not the most efficient way to camp. The tent is most likely some tropical-climate-rated breeze bag that's incredibly efficient at channeling the relentless chill wind, ensuring he's a shivering carcass all night long.

It also doesn't help matters when the groggy Point Rat, hustling to break camp, encounters the early-bird BMW-driving mortgage-owning haters--who eager for a dawn break session--radiate their frustration at him for the recently degraded soaring conditions. Whew. No, tent camping here is not good.

So since necessity is the mother of invention, and also because the Point Rat would be loathe to pay good money for even a cheap motel room, much less a polar expedition-quality tent, he merely moves his sleeping quarters into the vehicle. Bust down the back seats and create a layered nest. First put that inflatable camprest cross-wise to smooth out the seat joint, then layer on top a Sprawlmart-special semi-inflated inflatable mattress, then add the sandwich of greasy fartsacks. Nestled inside the bags, this can actually be quite comfortable, even with an economy car, as long as the Point Rat is no taller than say 6'0".

Now for obvious reasons, the Point Rat should remember to leave his leaky propane bottles outside the hermetically sealed vehicle during the overnight. But next morning, break down is a non-event and the eager beaver P2s just look expectantly at the Point Rat to be the first wind dummy! Hey buddy, do you think it's good?

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The Point Rat's camp stove jockeying is initially quite unskillful, as he tries to light and cook out in the howling wind wasting way too much propane for each meal. Eventually he will realize that the driver's side foot well is a far more sheltered and efficient place to do the cooking, as long as he pays strict attention. The rental car agency will appreciate singed seats or a melted steering wheel.

Living in the semi-desert environment will lead the Point Rat to conserve his drinking water, refusing to use it for cleaning. This is good. However cleaning the cooking utensils at the local coffee shop restroom will not earn the Point Rat any brownie points. He will eventually figure out one of the unspoken rules of no-budget car camping, reuse that processed drinking water!

Combined with a bit of biodegradable dish soap, and some camp stove heating, the Point Rat will find it works fairly well. And the most hardcore Point Rat will wash off the soapy residue in the same fashion, then slosh it around before flinging it. This technique is a godsend for him at night too. The Point Rat will find it is far more comfortable to relieve himself in the pot and pour it out the car door. It sure beats positioning himself at the cusp of the vehicle in the bracing night breeze and aiming low, hoping for no blowback.

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As mentioned previously, the Point Rat will usually not be spending much on food or lodging, but could very well have the bro-deal on the latest gear. In fact it behooves the Point Rat to try and get this on anything and everything gear/instruction related. He can work his debt off, or max-it off on his still technically valid credit cards.

The conscientious Point Rat will also offer to pay for his host's brews and meals in payment for pad-crashing and showering after late-night drinking sessions^w^w instructor studying when it's too late to drive back to the Point. The host was most likely a Point Rat himself previously, and thus the cycle repeats...

So my Utah trip is nearly completed, having successfully finished the paragliding instructor training course. And as you've read, I've learned quite a lot more from the Point Rat too! He recommended splurging on a $4 campground shower, Hollywood style, the night before my airline flight back to tropical civilization...

First Flight, North Side, The Point, Utah

I regret I didn't have my hacked up digital camera with me, but it was an overcast late afternoon yesterday and the sunset was totally blocked by stratus clouds. So no images to accompany this post, nor would they have done justice to exhilaration of a first flight.

At the parking lot launch, the ridge lift was medium strength (about 12-15mph) outta the North. When I rolled up there were quite a few other gliders out and so, (being uncomfortable in close quarters with other flying monkeys), I hung back. I hate launching into the gaggle.

Needless to say after three pilots lucked out (skilled out?) in the lift and benched up and back to the higher ridge behind launch and a few others landed out, I took flight into less crowded conditions. Unfortunately I picked a light cycle and scratched the ridge crest for about 7 mins before slowly sinking out. Bummer. After a non-eventful landing, (the best kind), I packed the wing up and climbed the hike of shame back to the parking lot.

At this point I ran into a local instructor Johnathan who was going out on a solo flight. I dropped my stuff sack and watched him scratch around for a bit before top landing. We both decided it was too light to fly the lower ridge without sinking out. And I didn't relish another short sled ride.

However, still jonesing for some airtime, we both invested effort in hiking up the big ridge behind the main launch, (benching up with the two-leg method, as you will). After getting high enough to feel a steady breeze Jonathan set up and took off. The wind was a bit cross but still had a lifting component to it, so after watching Jonathan get some altitude, I set up in the same area, careful to lay out the wing away from the clutching desert weeds.

I did a reverse wing inflation and spun and launched into a decent cycle. It was still quite a bit cross, so I had a few seconds of kiting and side-stepping down slope before feeling the reassuring support of my canopy.

I scratched only a little bit this time before finding sufficient and constant butter-smooth lift. Spent about 15 mins boating around with excellent views of the city spreading out below and the Great Salt Lake far to the north, bathed in late afternoon hazy sunlight. I rose well above the high ridge crest without worry in the light winds. It was the highest AGL I've been in some time, since the high launch back home was shut down due to the fire.

It felt good to get high again!

Tax Resistance to the Warfare State

Although I've left the Military Industrial Complex and am contributing to my peaceful local tourism-based economy, it's not as ballsy as this guy who's sticking it to the tax man!

Bryan Nelson's federal tax return says he owes $3,082. So he mailed his 1040 form to the IRS in time to meet today's filing deadline. But for the second year in a row, Nelson did not send what he owes.

His reason: "I wasn't going to pay for an illegal war in Iraq."

The U.S. imperial wars abroad are being financed through taxes and inflation and the blood of young men and women. We need more individuals to resist the machine in their own way, like Bryan Nelson above refusing to finance it and first lieutenant Ehren Watada refusing to pull the trigger.

The U.S. needs to divest its empire and toss off the vultures who profit from its decay to reemerge as a limited constitutional republic. Ron Paul 2008!

Lower U.S. dollar and the tourism economy

Let's hear it for a weaker dollar! Barring a total collapse of all fiat currencies, (eventually, but hopefully not soon!), this means more foreign tourists visiting Hawai'i under the conducive exchange rate. And more specifically this means more paragliding (tandem/solo) instruction and a summer of gangbusters kiteboarding instruction!

The only downside to a weaker dollar for fellow low income earners like myself is higher cost of oil and soon-to-be not-so-cheap crap from Sprawlmart. Good thing I don't buy too much of it. Would rather take my measly savings and store it in something solid.

Yes, Hawai'i could escape a U.S. housing depression if the Dollar exchange rate remains this conducive or gets even weaker.

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I met an older paragliding pilot doing the long term camping thing at The Point. Duke. He's living in a trailer and has a minivan to tow it. Sez he can live on $300/month, what with the monthly Social Security checks. Sweet!

Wonder if that government welfare is gonna come my way in another 30 years and whether it'll account for all the crazy inflation! I'm not counting on it.

Hydrating the passenger's side

My solar camping shower sucks. Because it leaks. The floor of the passenger side rental car had an inch of water in it this morning.

Anyway.

Had a sweet paragliding session on the South Side of the Point yesterday. Got 5+ touch-n-go ridge soaring flights in 15mph winds. It was the first time I've done touch-n-go top landings. The only prior ridge soaring experience I've had was at Makapu'u and Kahana Valley on O'ahu and both places are not conducive for an inexperienced pilot to top land.
It wasn't too crowded when I first got off but a gaggle of pilots came a bit after me and I moved further west along the ridge and flew closer to the gravel pits all by my lonesome. I'm not used to flying so close to other gliders and would admit to having only an ambiguous grasp of ridge soaring rules!

I wanna biodiesel camper van to nix renting

Warren from Park City was camping in his VW Eurovan at the South Side yesterday. Sweet setup, it's got a propane stove and refrigerator. If it were mine, I'd set up a black AVS pipe rooftop hot water solar shower too. Would need to think how to route the pipe around the popup camper shell however. Maybe setup some solar panels too and you'd be really good to go.

With that kind of vehicle, even in Hawai'i, you could skip out on monthly rent too, in addition to skipping the whole homedebtor debacle.

Speaking of rent, my place has gotta be the best deal on Maui except for location. I could only justify moving if the price increased to the comparable rate as upcountry. From what I've heard from my pilot buddy Jay-Dawg the cheapest upcountry detached rental is like $1300/month. You can go cheaper, but your privacy is compromised as the unit is usually attached room or basement of the primary residence. Not exactly the prices you'd want or could pay as a kiteboarding/paragliding instructor with part-time web/Linux coding work.

So we come back to the idea of nixing rent and going full time with the live-in camper surf van.

The biggest downside would be finding a hassle-free off-street repeatable camping site. A place where the harassers^w police wouldn't screw with you. Wonder how much a landowner would ask for renting an off- or semi-off street parking space. I'll ask craigslist about the economics of this and will report back my findings.

Ritz Dakota Digital Camera!

After reading about the Dakota Digital hack awhile back, I went out to local stores in Hawai'i to look for one. No place had them and the original cameras were no longer available from the manufacturer. Lo and behold I found a camera store in Utah with these very models still available.

So needless to say, I'll include pictures of my apprentice paragliding instruction and flying sessions at the Point and other Utah flying sites in the next few weeks.

Hmmmm... wonder if I can hack the camera together to connect to my laptop while I'm here on the road...

Snowbird Takes Wing

Arrived in Utah yesterday, April 11th and without much hassle rented a strangely russet orange colored chevy economy-class car from one of the usual car rental suspects. Drove outta the airport south to meet up with a local pilot and my local contact, Ken Hudonjorgensen of TwoCanFly.

After meeting Ken and having a quick bite to eat to quell my complaining stomach, we drove up to Snowbird with the intention of taking the tram to the top and running off the mountain with another visiting pilot. I quickly surmised that my jet-lagged condition was no good for piloting my paraglider in unfamiliar snowy terrain, so I ended up choosing not to fly. So I simply took the scenic tram ride and enjoyed watching the high-mountain takeoffs.

I ended the day at Point. Did some kiting practice on the South Side in prefrontal wind.

Today after a morning where the mercury registered 38F, I've found a nice coffee shop with free Wi-fi Internet access and similar ambience to Maui Coffee Roasters!

Remind me to get a cheap digital camera...